Army, on the other hand, has trended in an entirely different and sad direction. Mired in 12 straight losing seasons, Army now faces the real prospect of a 13th, with a faint glimmer of hope that a win over Navy would bring the end to the streak. I have noted previously that a great hope among Army fans would be to never hear the phrase “the first time since 1996” uttered again for a long time (unless the phrase was used like “the first McAda to play for Army since 1996”). It does not help to continue to rehash old news about Army’s downturn this decade; the stories have been told beyond belief at this point.

Overly flowery prose aside, there is some substantive analysis to do for the game. One thing to note upfront, I have a tremendous amount of difficulty putting a lot of weight behind statistical analysis when it comes to a game like this. I do not mean that “throw the records out the window” part either. The overall statistics for both teams are driven by their offenses, it is quite simple. That said, true analysis of Navy’s rushing offensive per carry versus Army’s yards allowed per carry can be difficult to conduct simply because my belief is that those statistics tend to lose value when offenses focus on one strength in particular (two things on this: 1) I know plenty of people will disagree with that and 2) please do not tell me “the triple option is not one-dimensional, how can you say they ‘focus on one strength”; I know that already). Rushing statistics generated out of particular offenses like the flexbone option, Air Forces multiple set option attack, or Rich Rodriguez’s spread rushing attack will more than likely skew statistics in a certain way such that a defense like Army’s that might have good defensive rushing statistics might seem like a good fit to defend the flexbone triple option, when in fact they match up horribly. Take, for example, Army’s team rushing defense stats: Army currently ranks 67th in the country in rushing yards allowed, however they are 59th in yards per carry. These statistics are skewed by the fact that they have played North Texas (a spread team with a solid rushing attack) and VMI a flexbone option team that has had some offensive success on the 1AA level (this blog does not acknowledge the nomenclature of “FCS” or “FBS”, thank you very much). If Army were first in the country in rushing defense, Navy would more than likely rush for a lot of yards so there seems to be no question that their multi-faceted option attack will work with a great amount of success this weekend. 350-400 yards rushing is not out of the question here. The question to me is not “how many yards will Navy get?” it is “how effective will the rushing yards be?” Army really held Air Force down in the first half before a well-timed third quarter pass play and the altitude caught up as Air Force blew open a very tight game. Despite this, Army held Air Force below its season average in rushing offense by over 110 total rushing yards, 20 rushing yards below their next worst rushing performance (Navy) and 1.28 yards per carry below their season average of 4.42 YPC (again, their lowest figure on the season). VMI (a team who runs an option attack more similar to Navy) had sustained rushing success against Army all day, picking up yardage in little chunks combined with four or five well timed big plays. If Army wants to have any chance in this game, they absolutely must be able to hold Navy below its season average in yards per game (nearly 280) and yards per carry (4.79). This means the game plan must be to limit big plays on the outside, force shorter runs on the full back dive and not being susceptible to misdirection (like Paul Johnson’s incredibly well-timed end-around off of a triple option run in the 2006 game that absolutely broke Army’s back in what was a surprisingly close game up to that point). There is no question to me that Navy’s quarterback Ricky Dobbs is perfectly suited to Navy’s offense because of his innate ability to read a defense, use his speed effectively to hit small gaps on midline option and triple option plays, but his ability to create deception in play-action combined with his skill at throwing passes in drop back play calls. He presents a unique challenge that Army has yet to deal with thus far this season. Army’s defense has indeed been able to create havoc for opposing QBs in its double-eagle flex formation, part of why Air Force struggled to create any plays in the first half of their game, however, the majority of Army’s success defensively has come against teams more suited to drop back passing where players like junior defensive end Joshua McNary has been a nightmare all season for opposing offensive tackles. The loss of junior linebacker and team co-captain Stephen Anderson certainly hurts Army’s ability to “read” the option defensively. Army must create disruption in Navy’s timing first and foremost through a surge by Victor Ugenyi and it is imperative for linebacker Andrew Rodriguez to have a good day in pursuit of both toss-sweep plays and to make correct reads when Navy runs outside options.

Offensively, it almost feels trite at this point to mention that Army has struggled in its first year in the Rich Ellerson era. Last season’s attempt at option football was not a true foray into the world of the spread option that Navy’s fans have come to love over the years. In the process of winning three games, Army’s reliance on fullback Colin Mooney became entirely predictable to the point that Navy dared Army to test them outside in last year’s Army-Navy game by loading the box and forcing quarterback Chip Bowden outside where Navy’s defensive speed took over the game. While this year has presented some measure of hope, there is little doubt that Army has faced severe growing pains as it does not yet have a level of speed on the outside in its slotbacks that Navy has been able to use to its advantage over the years. Furthermore, to this point, Army’s offensive line has not created enough of a surge for dives by the “B-Back” or counter runs by slotbacks. On the season, Navy has only allowed on average 127 yards per game passing, an average of 4.16 ypc and as previously mentioned held Air Force to its second lowest rushing output of the season with 183 total rushing yards on 3.45 ypc. Navy’s outlier in this category is their game against Temple where they allowed a staggering 8 yards per carry. Temple’s offense is clearly different than Army’s or Air Force’s considering neither have freshman running back sensation Bernard Pierce nor the same style of run blocking, so a fair tendency is to throw those statistics out the window and look at the fact that Navy has a pretty good defense against the run and has done very well against a complicated option attack. While Trent Steelman now is probably better than Chip Bowden then, Army does not have Colin Mooney’s dive runs to help take the pressure off of the outside game and Army’s offensive line has been vulnerable to disruption of their timing through post-snap penetration by team’s like VMI which presents the distinct possibility that this will be a very long day for Army in the rushing department. Steelman’s passing has shown notable strides, but beyond the “throw super high to Villanueva and pray” play call, the creativity has been lacking in the passing department this season. Going forward, this will likely not be the case as Army is dealing with the simultaneous challenge of a plebe qb starting every game in his first season at the academy, a 6’10” offensive tackle playing his first ever season at wide receiver, a largely brand new offensive line and slotbacks and receivers learning an entirely new and complex offense where a premium is placed on their ability to block, not always their route-running and pass-catching capabilities. Perhaps with a three week break between their last game and the Navy game, the coaching staff has been able to install and work through new plays and formations, right now, it seems as though that will not happen. Passing will be crucial for Army against Navy but facing a defense that has averaged just over 200 yards per game allowed, with only Notre Dame and Hawaii really posting serious outliers above 300 yards passing against the Mids, I’m not betting my collection of Britney Spears memorabilia that Army will control the game through the air to set up the run.

So where does that leave us? Either the season ends frustratingly in an 8th straight defeat to our hated rivals or we pull a pretty stunning upset to finally break this gosh-darned streak and we get another chance to shove it in the face of the MAC refs who stole the first Temple game (don’t bother arguing with me on this, please). Either way, we will review the season over the next few weeks, so this is not the forum for a lengthy review of some of the frustrations with the season thus far. No matter what happens, there truly have been some positive strides for a program that has gone 30-108 since the beginning of the 1997 season. No one will question Army fans; urge to yell or go crazy if Army loses, but let’s not lose sight of the strides the team has made. The worst case scenario is that Navy comes out and blows Army away early with no chance for recovery; the best case is that this becomes like the Navy-Air Force game this year, a low scoring, largely defense-driven affair ending in a close game coming down to the last moments (or overtime). It is hard for me to believe that we are in for a repeat of 2002 (or 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008), but there is not yet much evidence to support that this game will turn into the second version of the 1996 game. I think Army is still two years away from being competitive on any sort of level with Navy head to head.

Three things I want to happen:
1) Steelman with 350 total yards and two rushing TDs
2) McNary and Ugenyi with 18 combined tackles and 5 tackles for loss
3) Army 17, Navy 10

Three things I think will happen
1) Ricky Dobbs has 400 total yards and 3 rushing TDs
2) Navy holds Army under 300 yards of total offense and 200 yards rushing
3) Navy 31, Army 13

GO ARMY, BEAT NAVY!

There’s no denying that before the long run to put North Texas ahead that Army had lived on the edge the entire day. A normally strong Army defense had allowed North Texas’ offense to run up and down the field, giving up 370 yards total yards, but minimizing damage by forcing four turnovers. Army’s offense struggled to find the consistent that they have sought all year, so a long touchdown run seemed absolutely backbreaking. A missed PAT held North Texas’ lead to 13-10, at which point Army’s offense failed to convert on a 4th and 3 when Trent Steelman’s weak side option run only gained one yard, leaving North Texas with 1st and 10 at the Army 36 yard line and the season slowly fading into the abyss. What easily could have been a downtrodden Army defense took the field. The normally unflappable Joshua McNary was called for a facemask on the Mean Green’s QB Riley Dodge on what would have otherwise been a sack, setting up North Texas with another 1st and 10 at Army’s 21 yard line. After Dunbar ran for 9 yards on the next two plays, Army’s Steven Erzinger continued his strong performance (recovering from what seemed like a sub-par effort against VMI at home a week earlier) by sacking Dunbar for a four yard loss setting up a 4th and 5 at the Army 16 yard line with just over three minutes remaining.

While many questions continue to remain unanswered in Rich Ellerson’s first year as Army head coach, a coaching move that should not go unnoticed happened next. Ellerson’s defense remained on the field, forcing the Mean Green to take two of their timeouts prior to a field goal attempt that would have forced Army to score a touchdown. The events of that field goal remain a blur to me; watching a football game on a choppy, hazy two inch by four inch internet feed is not conducive to the most technical or flowery analysis of field goal defensive technique. Somewhere after snap and hold, Army’s Marcus Hilton broke through the offensive line, aided by Mike Gann and Victor Ugenyi, reached a paw up and deflected the 33 yard field goal attempt high into the Denton sky. Once again, Erzinger was opportunistic in his play and caught the ball, returning the block 23 yards, setting Army up at their own 38 with just over 2:30 left.

Army does not play freshman at quarterback, ever. This is not conjecture, it is simple fact. Other plebes have started games for Army, but Trent Steelman is the first plebe in “modern” history (and to be fair, all of history) to start the season and start every game in a season. It is sometimes hard to remember that freshmen, especially freshmen quarterbacks, will take time to develop, in spite of all of the tales of his ability to slay dragons and Midshipmen reached the eager ears of Army fans everywhere from the distant, mythical land of USMAPS last year. Room for growth remains, but Steelman’s talent and toughness have been evident all year. One 1st and 10, Steelman dropped to pass and immediately recognized that his favorite receiver, the 6’10 Alejandro Villenueva was well covered. Instead of forcing a throw that easily could have resulted in a game-ending interception, Steelman surveyed the field and found a gaping hole down the left side which he dashed through for 55 yards down to the Mean Green’s 7 yard line. Some might call it a “veteran” play; whatever the term, it was a play that set up Army’s game winning score and displayed the kind of decision making that Army will need from Steelman in his next three seasons as the Black Knights’ signal caller if the triple option is to become successful. Two plays later, Steelman found a crease and dove into the end zone and the converted PAT by Alex Carlton put Army ahead for good, 17-13.

The two timeouts that North Texas was forced to call prior to the blocked field goal loomed large with 1:43 left and, in some ways, limited Riley Dodge’s options down the middle of the field with so little time. Despite Dodge completing a pass for 19 yards, plebe defensive back Ty Shrader sealed the Army victory with an interception at the Army 40 yard line with 1:12 remaining, Army’s fifth forced turnover of the day. Often-maligned punter Jonathan Bulls’ rugby-style punt with 12 seconds remaining in the game bounced to the North Texas 15 yard line as time expired. Army fans know that five wins in a season at this point generate noise complaints from neighbors and numerous incoherent text messages and immediate “OMG we SO won!!!!” Facebook status updates (OK, I’m one of three Army fans I know who use Facebook).

At 5-6, Army fans contemplate the first time since 1996 where a bowl is a realistic possibility. There remains hope that next season will be the first time since 1996 where Army fans do not have to hear “the first since 1996” after any of Army’s accomplishments. Army has two weeks off prior to their annual tussle with Navy. Generally, the adage is “you throw out the records when these two meet”, but that completely ignores the fact that Army has not been competitive with Navy in almost any respect since their last win in 2001. At this point, Army is not on any competitive level with Navy and a win against the Middies seems unlikely. Stephen Anderson’s knee injury should hurt an Army defense that largely shut down Air Force’s different approach to the option through one half of football before a difficult second half. Navy’s defense has played very well this year and while Army will improve in their option attack, they simply do not have an offensive line to create enough holes up the middle for the fullback dive play. More than likely, Ellerson and company will face their first true off-season at Army after finishing a frustrating, but also encouraging 5-7 that, given a few bounces could have been 6-6 or 7-5. I do not want to write off the Army-Navy game at this point, I will have a bit more to preview the Navy game during the week leading up to the game. At this point, it is important to remember that what will be an uphill climb seems to have a distinct feeling of hope right now, after Army stole a win in the North Texas night. Army fans have seen that type game go the other way so many times in the past and you can forgive them if they had the thought that, maybe, it will be different now.

Added thoughts that I absolutely REFUSE to call “Extra Points”:

- Steelman really could be one of the all time great QBs at Army if he continues to develop, but it will all depend on development of the offensive line.
- The North Texas commentators were excellent, even if the overall quality of their broadcast was not. This is the first time I can remember an opponent’s broadcast team not overtly and vociferously rooting against Army and providing actual commentary on a football game at the same time.
- All things considered, it is very hard to complain about the defensive performance on Saturday with Anderson’s injury taking out the most important position. McNary remained relentless throughout and Rodriguez continues to improve at a crucial position as only a sophomore. Still, despite two interceptions by defensive backs, the secondary on the whole remains a question mark that must improve next year for further strides to be taken.